Let It Snow..

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Re: Let It Snow..

Postby bdub » Wed Aug 17, 2016 8:06 am

it's a simple logic, you see. all these many multiple thousands of tons of carbon (or whatever amount) that has been stored for millions (tens of millions, hundreds of millions, billions) of years in the earth is set free into our atmosphere in a relatively short (200-300 years or so) span of time... what do you think is gonna happen? maybe no one can exactly predict what, but just a little intelligence has to glean from this that it can't be good.
oh yeah, factor in that there used to be a lot more trees and other flora, and a lot less concrete, blacktop roads, etc covering the ground.
capisce?

I don't pretend there is anyway we will fix this problem, current mindset of the greedy, small minded deniers seems evident to be winning the day... I think it's imperative that we find relief for this planet by offloading inhabitants elsewhere, which unfortunately is not looking very likely anytime soon.
I hope I'm wrong, but we are about to get served a big crap-burger.
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Re: Let It Snow..

Postby bdub » Mon Aug 22, 2016 5:51 am

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/ene ... ed50a3f7d2

"Scientists have long predicted this moment, although as recently as last year, a scientific study found the Northwest Passage would remain too unpredictable for regular shipping for some time to come. But that hasn’t stopped some commercial shipping vessels from already making the journey. Nor did it stop the planning for the Arctic’s inaugural cruise — a journey that will mark the first case of mega-scale tourism in one of last virtually untouched landscapes left in the world."

"More than anything, the cruise is a symbol, a harbinger of the tourism and commercial traffic that is likely to fill the once-isolated, ice-choked waters of the Arctic. Many scientists have projected that the ocean could become virtually free of ice during summers at some point, perhaps as soon as the next few decades."

my guess is it'll be a lot sooner than that.
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Re: Let It Snow..

Postby bdub » Mon Aug 22, 2016 11:29 am

huh... never saw this coming...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/ene ... a0fcc66e17
'course some here will just take that ice and add it to the sea ice total, and say "there's nothing wrong, plenty of sea ice out there!".
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Re: Let It Snow..

Postby Karlsweldt » Mon Aug 22, 2016 3:16 pm

The Sun has about an 11 year cycle, from zenith (most active) to nadir ()least active).
We are in the waning phase of the cycle, and the maximum effect is being noted.
Yet the more water melt from glaciers, the better for a return to a cooler period. Plain water evaporates faster than sea water.
That in turn creates more cloud cover, helping to shield the Earth from the Sun's warming effect.
While glacial melt is alarming, it may only be a bit more than what has been in previous cycles.
Yet with mankind's excessive use of fossil fuels and deforestation, this past cycle is regarded as one of the warmest.
F@H.. to solve mankind's maladies.. in our lifetimes!
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Re: Let It Snow..

Postby bdub » Wed Aug 24, 2016 9:47 am

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/spe ... ge%2Fstory

now we got somewhere to aim for at least, or possibly.
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Re: Let It Snow..

Postby Karlsweldt » Wed Aug 24, 2016 3:55 pm

Yeah.. "only" about 500 light-years distant!
Was confirmed about a year ago, a planet that could possibly support life as we know it.
Don't think I have a big enough travel trunk to pack for that journey!
https://www.nasa.gov/ames/kepler/nasas- ... other-star
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Re: Let It Snow..

Postby bdub » Thu Aug 25, 2016 6:30 am

425, 500, whatever... lets figure out how to bend space/time and get there!
of course, though, with the kids learning about "intelligent design" now instead of true science, I say the odds are against us.
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Re: Let It Snow..

Postby bdub » Tue Oct 25, 2016 7:59 am

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/ ... ntent=2051
"
Khazendar says the melting process appears to be irreversible. Polar scientists fear that at some point, the shelves will collapse and Antarctica's glaciers will flow into the sea. As to whether and when that might happen?

"The simple answer is we don't know. And that's the scary part," Khazendar says.
"

there'll be a buttload of "sea ice" then... will that indicate a bright future?!!!
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Re: Let It Snow..

Postby BrevCampagnolo » Wed Jan 18, 2017 12:58 pm

Scientists Call Global Warming ‘Hot Air’, Show Evidence to Prove It!
Mark Anderson
January 4, 2017

TEMPE, Ariz. — Man-made “global warming” is a fantastic fable that needs to debunked. That’s the general outlook of scientists, academics, journalists and other researchers who convened for the third congress of Freedom Force International (FFI), which ran Dec. 2-4 at the Marriot-Tempe “on the Buttes” resort hotel near Phoenix. The event was named, “Global Warming: An Inconvenient Lie.”

It offered a staggeringly different narrative on “global warming” and “climate change” compared to the harrowing themes peddled in our “learning” institutions and in the orthodox press, as this writer heard covering several conference speeches and live streaming video news segments with participants that can be viewed at: https://livestream.com/ronavery/global-warming-congress.

FFI, led by widely respected Federal Reserve investigator-author G. Edward Griffin, welcomed an array of speakers to Tempe. They explored “global warming” from several angles, including the “mainstream” media’s intensely biased stance, as well as the role played by K-12 education, the scientific community, general academia, governments, the United Nations, etc.

This writer covered the FFI event for American Free Press.

All these institutions recite the same anti-human narrative that people are a blight who are arrogantly warming the earth through the routine release of carbon dioxide and other “greenhouse gases” via industrial, agricultural and other emissions.

And we’re constantly told that, lest we mend our ways very quickly, we’re all supposedly in mortal peril from this perceived global warming, amid claims of melting ice sheets, rising ocean waters, droughts, flooding, starvation, riots, water wars, etc.

The FFI conference offered credible evidence to the contrary—even including the topic of geo-engineering and weather modification—thereby adding a new, compelling dimension to the climate issue.

All told, FFI members and guests felt their conference was successful in adding much-needed balance to the debate, via realistic perspectives which show that what little “global warming” may exist is not caused by man-made industrial and agricultural emissions, but instead is caused by solar variation and other factors.

Plus, modest carbon dioxide atmospheric increases, conference participants agreed, can be seen as a largely positive thing since CO2 is the “gas of life.”

Accordingly, CO2 increases would give rise to more lush vegetation and greater food supplies. That challenges the standard fright-peddling narrative that global warming is not only being caused by man-made emissions, but also that CO2 is a virtual “toxin.”

Mathematician Lord Christopher Monckton of the UK told The TRUTH HOUND, on hand reporting on the conference for American Free Press, that flawed math is being used in conjunction with computer-based climate models. That, he said, results in exaggerated predictions of global temperature increases.

Expounding on the outlook of the establishment scientific community that insists without apparent dissent that man-made global warming is real, Monckton in a Dec. 2 video interview (among the videos in the Livestream link above) noted, “They’ve exaggerated the amount of warming” but they’ve also “exaggerated the degree of consensus.”

That remark on the amount of consensus relates to what Monckton and several other FFI conference participants pinpointed as a vulnerable linchpin to the whole global warming claim: The allegation, peddled as immovable fact by establishment scientists and conventional media, that “97%” of scientists believe global warming is caused by humankind’s automotive, industrial and farm emissions—among other emissions, even including cattle flatulence.

The reason the “97%” claim is highly misleading, Monckton and other FFI participants noted, is that it’s based on fewer than 100 of nearly 12,000 peer-reviewed scientific papers on climate change. So, saying that 97% of less than 1% of all these studies support the global warming narrative, while making it sound like 97% of the 12,000 studies support it, is a gross distortion.

Monckton went on to say in his interview with this writer that there also has been an exaggeration of the economics regarding global warming (the supposed need to increase taxes and regulations to mitigate the effects of burning so-called fossil fuels).

“But particularly,” Monckton continued, “they’ve made a mistake on the physics and the math,” which he said results in inflated forecasts of temperature increases “of up to 12 degrees Celsius per doubling of CO2.” However, if the flawed math is corrected, he added, “We can say that it won’t be more than 2.7 degrees C per doubling of CO2, and that’s the high end.”

He further clarified that an increase of 1.6 degrees C, or even 0.7, per CO2 doubling, is more realistic in terms of possible warming, when the correct math is applied.

Other FFI conference highlights included:

* Reporter Alex Newman, who said that distortion forms the basis of the corporate media’s totally one-sided view on this issue, even while news reports are replete with references to climate skeptics as mindless “climate deniers” whose very existence doesn’t deserve acknowledgement.

* The fact that John Holdren, a retread from the “global cooling” scare stories in the 1970s-80s, has reemerged as President Obama’s “science czar.” The old stories that up to 1 billion could die from global cooling have given way to Holdren’s calls for forced abortions, even while various climate gurus pursue draconian depopulation directives to combat “global warming,” because, to them, fewer people leaving “carbon footprints” equals a “healthier” world.

* Stark contradictions, such as a May 2014 LA Times report, “Irreversible Collapse of Antarctic Glaciers Has Begun,” even while NASA cited “record amounts of sea ice.” Then, in May 2015, the UN Foundation and mainstream media partners formed a “news collective” to advance the “correct” climate narrative. But behind the scenes, as Newman showed, a Senate report documents a “billionaires club” that underpins the “green” movement via Rockefeller funds, etc.

An outgrowth of all this is that nearly all media reports call CO2 “pollution” when, in reality, “Human emissions are less than 1% of all greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,” and CO2 is but one component of those gases, as Newman explained. Therefore, the real purveyors of “fake news” are so-called “mainstream” outlets.

Also, Canadian Professor Tim Ball announced to FFI that, soon after the conference, he was to meet with President-Elect Donald Trump’s people to discuss the climate change issue and pursue more realistic policies. This news was well received and fits into Griffin’s mission to have FFI be a true, active “force” for constructive policy changes.

And among other compelling speakers, independent researcher Jim Lee awed many when, backed by memoranda, news clippings and declassified documents, he showed there’s been 100 years of earnest efforts to manipulate the weather, though not always for nefarious reasons.

His http://www.climateviewer.com website (also http://www.climateviewer.org) cover considerable ground in documenting and explaining the established know-how to create, intensify and influence the path of rain storms and much more powerful storm movements.

One, among several, conclusions is that anomalies in the world’s climate (extended droughts in the West amid massive, unexpected dumps of rain elsewhere etc.) can be traced to various phenomena including geo-engineering and weather manipulation, but weather gyrations are equated with the common global warming narrative to present a false picture to the public. It’s highly recommended that the reader view this interview by The TRUTH HOUND with Mr. Lee here: https://livestream.com/ronavery/global- ... /143406499
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Re: Let It Snow..

Postby BrevCampagnolo » Mon Feb 06, 2017 3:20 pm

Exposed: How world leaders were duped into investing billions over manipulated global warming data

* The Mail on Sunday can reveal a landmark paper exaggerated global warming
* It was rushed through and timed to influence the Paris agreement on climate change
* America’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration broke its own rules
* The report claimed the pause in global warming never existed, but it was based on misleading, ‘unverified’ data


By David Rose for The Mail on Sunday

Published: 22:57 GMT, 4 February 2017 | Updated: 15:12 GMT, 5 February 2017

The Mail on Sunday today reveals astonishing evidence that the organisation that is the world’s leading source of climate data rushed to publish a landmark paper that exaggerated global warming and was timed to influence the historic Paris Agreement on climate change.

A high-level whistleblower has told this newspaper that America’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) breached its own rules on scientific integrity when it published the sensational but flawed report, aimed at making the maximum possible impact on world leaders including Barack Obama and David Cameron at the UN climate conference in Paris in 2015.

The report claimed that the ‘pause’ or ‘slowdown’ in global warming in the period since 1998 – revealed by UN scientists in 2013 – never existed, and that world temperatures had been rising faster than scientists expected. Launched by NOAA with a public relations fanfare, it was splashed across the world’s media, and cited repeatedly by politicians and policy makers.

But the whistleblower, Dr John Bates, a top NOAA scientist with an impeccable reputation, has shown The Mail on Sunday irrefutable evidence that the paper was based on misleading, ‘unverified’ data.

It was never subjected to NOAA’s rigorous internal evaluation process – which Dr Bates devised.

His vehement objections to the publication of the faulty data were overridden by his NOAA superiors in what he describes as a ‘blatant attempt to intensify the impact’ of what became known as the Pausebuster paper.

His disclosures are likely to stiffen President Trump’s determination to enact his pledges to reverse his predecessor’s ‘green’ policies, and to withdraw from the Paris deal – so triggering an intense political row.

In an exclusive interview, Dr Bates accused the lead author of the paper, Thomas Karl, who was until last year director of the NOAA section that produces climate data – the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) – of ‘insisting on decisions and scientific choices that maximised warming and minimised documentation… in an effort to discredit the notion of a global warming pause, rushed so that he could time publication to influence national and international deliberations on climate policy’.

Dr Bates was one of two Principal Scientists at NCEI, based in Asheville, North Carolina.

Official delegations from America, Britain and the EU were strongly influenced by the flawed NOAA study as they hammered out the Paris Agreement – and committed advanced nations to sweeping reductions in their use of fossil fuel and to spending £80 billion every year on new, climate-related aid projects.

The scandal has disturbing echoes of the ‘Climategate’ affair which broke shortly before the UN climate summit in 2009, when the leak of thousands of emails between climate scientists suggested they had manipulated and hidden data. Some were British experts at the influential Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia.

NOAA’s 2015 ‘Pausebuster’ paper was based on two new temperature sets of data – one containing measurements of temperatures at the planet’s surface on land, the other at the surface of the seas.

Both datasets were flawed. This newspaper has learnt that NOAA has now decided that the sea dataset will have to be replaced and substantially revised just 18 months after it was issued, because it used unreliable methods which overstated the speed of warming. The revised data will show both lower temperatures and a slower rate in the recent warming trend.

The land temperature dataset used by the study was afflicted by devastating bugs in its software that rendered its findings ‘unstable’.

The paper relied on a preliminary, ‘alpha’ version of the data which was never approved or verified.

A final, approved version has still not been issued. None of the data on which the paper was based was properly ‘archived’ – a mandatory requirement meant to ensure that raw data and the software used to process it is accessible to other scientists, so they can verify NOAA results.

Dr Bates retired from NOAA at the end of last year after a 40-year career in meteorology and climate science. As recently as 2014, the Obama administration awarded him a special gold medal for his work in setting new, supposedly binding standards ‘to produce and preserve climate data records’.

Yet when it came to the paper timed to influence the Paris conference, Dr Bates said, these standards were flagrantly ignored.

The paper was published in June 2015 by the journal Science. Entitled ‘Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus’, the document said the widely reported ‘pause’ or ‘slowdown’ was a myth.

Less than two years earlier, a blockbuster report from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which drew on the work of hundreds of scientists around the world, had found ‘a much smaller increasing trend over the past 15 years 1998-2012 than over the past 30 to 60 years’. Explaining the pause became a key issue for climate science. It was seized on by global warming sceptics, because the level of CO2 in the atmosphere had continued to rise.

Some scientists argued that the existence of the pause meant the world’s climate is less sensitive to greenhouse gases than previously thought, so that future warming would be slower. One of them, Professor Judith Curry, then head of climate science at the Georgia Institute of Technology, said it suggested that computer models used to project future warming were ‘running too hot’.

However, the Pausebuster paper said while the rate of global warming from 1950 to 1999 was 0.113C per decade, the rate from 2000 to 2014 was actually higher, at 0.116C per decade. The IPCC’s claim about the pause, it concluded, ‘was no longer valid’.

The impact was huge and lasting. On publication day, the BBC said the pause in global warming was ‘an illusion caused by inaccurate data’.

One American magazine described the paper as a ‘science bomb’ dropped on sceptics.

Its impact could be seen in this newspaper last month when, writing to launch his Ladybird book about climate change, Prince Charles stated baldly: ‘There isn’t a pause… it is hard to reject the facts on the basis of the evidence.’

The sea dataset used by Thomas Karl and his colleagues – known as Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperatures version 4, or ERSSTv4, tripled the warming trend over the sea during the years 2000 to 2014 from just 0.036C per decade – as stated in version 3 – to 0.099C per decade. Individual measurements in some parts of the globe had increased by about 0.1C and this resulted in the dramatic increase of the overall global trend published by the Pausebuster paper. But Dr Bates said this increase in temperatures was achieved by dubious means. Its key error was an upwards ‘adjustment’ of readings from fixed and floating buoys, which are generally reliable, to bring them into line with readings from a much more doubtful source – water taken in by ships. This, Dr Bates explained, has long been known to be questionable: ships are themselves sources of heat, readings will vary from ship to ship, and the depth of water intake will vary according to how heavily a ship is laden – so affecting temperature readings.

Dr Bates said: ‘They had good data from buoys. And they threw it out and “corrected” it by using the bad data from ships. You never change good data to agree with bad, but that’s what they did – so as to make it look as if the sea was warmer.’

ERSSTv4 ‘adjusted’ buoy readings up by 0.12C. It also ignored data from satellites that measure the temperature of the lower atmosphere, which are also considered reliable. Dr Bates said he gave the paper’s co-authors ‘a hard time’ about this, ‘and they never really justified what they were doing.’

Now, some of those same authors have produced the pending, revised new version of the sea dataset – ERSSTv5. A draft of a document that explains the methods used to generate version 5, and which has been seen by this newspaper, indicates the new version will reverse the flaws in version 4, changing the buoy adjustments and including some satellite data and measurements from a special high-tech floating buoy network known as Argo. As a result, it is certain to show reductions in both absolute temperatures and recent global warming.

The second dataset used by the Pausebuster paper was a new version of NOAA’s land records, known as the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN), an analysis over time of temperature readings from about 4,000 weather stations spread across the globe.

This new version found past temperatures had been cooler than previously thought, and recent ones higher – so that the warming trend looked steeper. For the period 2000 to 2014, the paper increased the rate of warming on land from 0.15C to 0.164C per decade.

In the weeks after the Pausebuster paper was published, Dr Bates conducted a one-man investigation into this. His findings were extraordinary. Not only had Mr Karl and his colleagues failed to follow any of the formal procedures required to approve and archive their data, they had used a ‘highly experimental early run’ of a programme that tried to combine two previously separate sets of records.

This had undergone the critical process known as ‘pairwise homogeneity adjustment’, a method of spotting ‘rogue’ readings from individual weather stations by comparing them with others nearby.

However, this process requires extensive, careful checking which was only just beginning, so that the data was not ready for operational use. Now, more than two years after the Pausebuster paper was submitted to Science, the new version of GHCN is still undergoing testing.

Moreover, the GHCN software was afflicted by serious bugs. They caused it to become so ‘unstable’ that every time the raw temperature readings were run through the computer, it gave different results. The new, bug-free version of GHCN has still not been approved and issued. It is, Dr Bates said, ‘significantly different’ from that used by Mr Karl and his co-authors.

Dr Bates revealed that the failure to archive and make available fully documented data not only violated NOAA rules, but also those set down by Science. Before he retired last year, he continued to raise the issue internally. Then came the final bombshell. Dr Bates said: ‘I learned that the computer used to process the software had suffered a complete failure.’

The reason for the failure is unknown, but it means the Pausebuster paper can never be replicated or verified by other scientists.

The flawed conclusions of the Pausebuster paper were widely discussed by delegates at the Paris climate change conference. Mr Karl had a longstanding relationship with President Obama’s chief science adviser, John Holdren, giving him a hotline to the White House.

Image
The red line shows the current NOAA world temperature graph - elevated in recent years due to the ‘adjusted’ sea data. The blue line is the Met Office's independent HadCRUT4 record. Although they are offset in temperature by 0.12°C due to different analysis techniques, they reveal that NOAA has been adjusted and so shows a steeper recent warming trend.

Mr Holdren was also a strong advocate of robust measures to curb emissions. Britain’s then Prime Minister David Cameron claimed at the conference that ‘97 per cent of scientists say climate change is urgent and man-made and must be addressed’ and called for ‘a binding legal mechanism’ to ensure the world got no more than 2C warmer than in pre-industrial times.

President Obama stressed his Clean Power Plan at the conference, which mandates American power stations to make big emissions cuts.

President Trump has since pledged he will scrap it, and to withdraw from the Paris Agreement.

Whatever takes its place, said Dr Bates, ‘there needs to be a fundamental change to the way NOAA deals with data so that people can check and validate scientific results. I’m hoping that this will be a wake-up call to the climate science community – a signal that we have to put in place processes to make sure this kind of crap doesn’t happen again.

‘I want to address the systemic problems. I don’t care whether modifications to the datasets make temperatures go up or down. But I want the observations to speak for themselves, and for that, there needs to be a new emphasis that ethical standards must be maintained.’

He said he decided to speak out after seeing reports in papers including the Washington Post and Forbes magazine claiming that scientists feared the Trump administration would fail to maintain and preserve NOAA’s climate records.

Dr Bates said: ‘How ironic it is that there is now this idea that Trump is going to trash climate data, when key decisions were earlier taken by someone whose responsibility it was to maintain its integrity – and failed.’

NOAA not only failed, but it effectively mounted a cover-up when challenged over its data. After the paper was published, the US House of Representatives Science Committee launched an inquiry into its Pausebuster claims. NOAA refused to comply with subpoenas demanding internal emails from the committee chairman, the Texas Republican Lamar Smith, and falsely claimed that no one had raised concerns about the paper internally.

Last night Mr Smith thanked Dr Bates ‘for courageously stepping forward to tell the truth about NOAA’s senior officials playing fast and loose with the data in order to meet a politically predetermined conclusion’. He added: ‘The Karl study used flawed data, was rushed to publication in an effort to support the President’s climate change agenda, and ignored NOAA’s own standards for scientific study.’

Professor Curry, now the president of the Climate Forecast Applications Network, said last night: ‘Large adjustments to the raw data, and substantial changes in successive dataset versions, imply substantial uncertainties.’

It was time, she said, that politicians and policymakers took these uncertainties on board.

Last night Mr Karl admitted the data had not been archived when the paper was published. Asked why he had not waited, he said: ‘John Bates is talking about a formal process that takes a long time.’ He denied he was rushing to get the paper out in time for Paris, saying: ‘There was no discussion about Paris.’

He also admitted that the final, approved and ‘operational’ edition of the GHCN land data would be ‘different’ from that used in the paper’.

As for the ERSSTv4 sea dataset, he claimed it was other records – such as the UK Met Office’s – which were wrong, because they understated global warming and were ‘biased too low’. Jeremy Berg, Science’s editor-in-chief, said: ‘Dr Bates raises some serious concerns. After the results of any appropriate investigations… we will consider our options.’ He said that ‘could include retracting that paper’.NOAA declined to comment.


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/ ... -data.html
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