Let It Snow..

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Re: Let It Snow..

Postby rascard2007 » Tue Jun 23, 2015 12:09 pm

I don´t want to make a debate around but how trustworthy are the investigations today?

investigations need money and how biased can an investigation be in favour of the ones that provide the money?

there are a lot of examples on how things go cycling from one end to the other depending of what they need to demostrate

margarine vs butter debate, animal fat vs vegetable oils, the use of soy beans, special diets, and so on

I´m not sure how the scientific ethics is still working nowadays
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Re: Let It Snow..

Postby BrevCampagnolo » Wed Jun 24, 2015 8:14 am

Britain faces FREEZING winters as slump in solar activity threatens 'little Ice Age'

BRITAIN could face colder than average winters with a plunge in solar activity threatening a new "little ice age" in the next few decades.

By Nathan Rao
PUBLISHED: 05:53, Wed, Jun 24, 2015 | UPDATED: 12:03, Wed, Jun 24, 2015

Climate experts warn the amount of light and warmth released by the sun is nosediving to levels "not seen for centuries".

They fear a repeat of the so-called 'Maunder Minimum' which triggered Arctic winter whiteouts and led to the River Thames freezing 300 years ago.

The Met Office-led study warns although the effect will be offset by recent global warming, Britain faces years of unusually cold winters.

A spokesman said: "A return to low solar activity not seen for centuries could increase the chances of cold winters in Europe and eastern parts of the United States but wouldn't halt global warming.

"Return of 'grand solar minimum' could affect European and eastern US winters."

Long episodes of low solar activity were seen during the Maunder Minimum between 1645 and 1715 and the 'Dalton Minimum' from 1790 to 1830.

Both periods coincided with colder-than-normal global temperatures earning the title from scientists of "Little Ice Age."

The latest study, published in Nature Communications, found reduced solar activity will lead to an overall cooling of the Earth of 0.1C.

A much bigger cooling effect is expected for Britain, northern Europe and North America where thermometers could drop by 0.8C.

Amanda Maycock, of the University of Cambridge and National Centre for Atmospheric Science, said: "It's important that we consider the potential impact of changes in UV output when looking at future climate."

Met Office scientist and lead author Sarah Ineson, said: "This research shows that the regional impacts of a grand solar minimum are likely to be larger than the global effect.

"This study shows that the sun isn't going to save us from global warming, but it could have impacts at a regional level that should be factored in to decisions about adapting to climate change for the decades to come."

Met Office long-range expert professor Adam Scaife said solar activity has already started to decline over the past few years.

He said: "Although the effect on global temperatures is very small, the local effect is big enough to make a difference and we need to include that in our future climate projections."

He said if "factors come together", severe winters like the 2009/10 chiller which crippled Britain could become more frequent.

He warned early signals point towards a period of minimum solar activity by the middle of this century.

"There is a high chance that solar activity of the sun will decrease over the next few years," he said.

"There is a chance of a repeat of the Maunder Minimum period where sun spots completely vanish, there are already some signs of this.

"This can change the amount of ozone in the atmosphere over the tropics and a weakening and southwards shift of the jet stream, in winter this leads to colder conditions.

"There were many factors which triggered the winter of 2009/10 and this could have been one of them.

"We might get another year when all these factors come together again, in any case there is an increased risk of colder winters."

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said the effects may be felt as soon as this winter.

He said: "Solar activity levels, or solar flux, are currently estimated to be at their lowest for the last 100 years.

"We will head into another rapid decline throughout the remainder of the upcoming year.

"On the basis of past solar activity levels it is an inevitability that solar and sunspot activity will continue to fall off the charts in the coming years and decades, including the upcoming winter period of 2015/16."

The coldest winter ever recorded in 1684 occurred during the last Maunder Minimum period and saw the River Thames in London freeze over.

Maunder Minimum is named after the English astronomer Edward Walter Maunder who noticed fewer sunspots were observed between 1645 and 1715.

Sunspot activity peaks and troughs with roughly an 11-year cycle, activity has been dipping over the past decade.

Professor Scaife said: "During the Mander Minimum period there were runs of cold winters including 1684 which was the coldest winter recorded.

"There are signs that solar activity has been dropping over the past decade with a one in five chance of it reaching a similar low by around 2050."
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Re: Let It Snow..

Postby BrevCampagnolo » Thu Jun 25, 2015 8:27 am

Study Predicts Decades Of Global Cooling Ahead

Michael Bastasch
11:47 AM 05/28/2015

A new study out of the United Kingdom predicts the Earth is about to go through a major climatic shift that could mean decades of cooler temperatures and fewer hurricanes hitting the United States.

Scientists at the University of Southampton predict that a cooling of the Atlantic Ocean could cool global temperatures a half a degree Celsius and may offer a “brief respite from the persistent rise of global temperatures,” according to their study.

This cooling phase in the Atlantic will influence “temperature, rainfall, drought and even the frequency of hurricanes in many regions of the world,” says Dr. Gerard McCarthy. The study’s authors based their results on ocean sensor arrays and 100 years of sea-level data.

“Sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic vary between warm and cold over time-scales of many decades,” said McCarthy, the study’s lead author. “This decadal variability, called the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), is a notable feature of the Atlantic Ocean and the climate of the regions it influences.”

“The observations of [AMO] from [sensor arrays], over the past ten years, show that it is declining,” Dr. David Smeed, a co-author, said in a statement. “As a result, we expect the AMO is moving to a negative phase, which will result in cooler surface waters. This is consistent with observations of temperature in the North Atlantic.”

Researchers argue that a negative AMO will bring “drier summers in Britain and Ireland, accelerated sea-level rise along the northeast coast of the United States, and drought in the developing countries of the Sahel region,” according to the study’s press release. Interestingly enough, the study also predicts fewer hurricanes hitting the U.S.– a result of a cooler Atlantic.

Atlantic cooling can impact the climate for decades, according to researchers, on timescales from 20 to 30 years. This means cooler global temperatures and changing weather patterns could unfold over the next two to three decades, possibly extending the so-called “pause” in global warming.

For years, scientists have been debating why satellite temperature data shows there have been about 18 years with no warming trend. Surface temperature data shows a similar pause in warming for the last 10 to 15 years.

So far, the dominant explanation seems to be that oceans have absorbed a lot of the heat that would have otherwise gone into the atmosphere. And most scientists argue the world will continue warming because of increasing greenhouse gas emissions.

Some scientists, however, have been arguing the world is indeed headed for a cooling phase based on solar cycles. Scientists from Germany to India have argued that weakening solar activity could bring about another “Little Ice Age.”

“The stagnation of temperature since 1998 was caused by decreasing solar activity since 1998,” wrote Jürgen Lange Heine, a physicist with the German-based European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE).

“From 1900 to 1998, solar radiation increased by 1.3 W / m², but since 1998 it has diminished, and could reach values ​​similar to those of the early 20th century. A drop in global temperature over the next few years is predicted,” Heine wrote.

The Virginia-based Vencore Weather recently reported that “[n]ot since cycle 14 peaked in February 1906 has there been a solar cycle with fewer sunspots.”

We are currently more than six years into Solar Cycle 24 and the current nearly blank sun may signal the end of the solar maximum phase,” Vencore Weather experts noted. “Going back to 1755, there have been only a few solar cycles in the previous 23 that have had a lower number of sunspots during its maximum phase.”

McCarthy and his colleagues, however, argue there could be a reprieve from warming based on natural ocean cycles– not solar activity. The British scientists argue that weaker ocean currents are carrying less heat northward from the tropics.
-- Campy

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Re: Let It Snow..

Postby bdub » Thu Jul 09, 2015 6:09 am

http://www.rawstory.com/2015/07/reveale ... ore-years/

“One thing that occurs to me is the behavior of the tobacco companies denying the connection between smoking and lung cancer for the sake of profits, but this is an order of magnitude greater moral offence, in my opinion, because what is at stake is the fate of the planet, humanity, and the future of civilisation, not to be melodramatic.”

and a quote from the comments...
"Naturally American conservatives, specifically Republicans, being the avaricious, unrepentant concubines of big business/big oil for decades, filled their pockets and resorted to the supremely stupid tactic of fighting American science. Thanks, Republicans for putting all of America in an intractable environmental nightmare that might have been avoided.

Remind yourself these same right wingers have fought the progress of science ( unless the science pads their fatcat pockets or creates a bigger and deadlier weapon ) since their Bible thumping, anti-evolution days.

The right still prefers fairy tale nonsense to science. They still fight evolution. They are still fighting progress. All their rancor about the science of climate change being funded by liberals suckling at the big government teat was 'smoke and mirrors,' nothing but a mendacious tactic to deflect the truth that right wing reprobates are actually stuffing wads of ill-gotten gain into their pockets.

Modern conservative philosophy is morally and intellectually bereft. It has lost all basis in 'fiscal conservatism' and is waging an 'idiot's war.'"


and another...
"What a surprise! Of course they knew about global warming they have some of the best scientist on the payroll and of course what they did first was to invest in disinformation to stall as long as possible the inevitable regulation of carbon. It has given them almost 30 year of continued unabated exploitation of the planet with no cost to their profits. Capitalism at its finest."

and two more...
"Exxon are amoral selfish jerks spinning propaganda to maximize their short-term profits as you'd expect them to do.
The real fools are the right-wing morons who gullibly believed the corporation was telling some kind of "truth" in denying climate change.
Only the stupidest authoritarian-follower lickspittle would believe a corporation with billions in profits on the line would be more credible than thousands of trained scientists around the world. Because they worship the wealthy and powerful and sneer at science and intellect."

"I can't fathom how deniers expect anyone to believe that the majority of the world's scientists are conspiring to profit from the "myth" of climate change at the expense of the honest hard-working oil barons. No-one's get-rich-quick scheme involves decades of school perpetually sleep deprived, a hundred thousand in student loans, and strained interpersonal relationships."

and one more, and most apropos...
"Next quarter's earnings reports are far more important than all life on the planet."
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Re: Let It Snow..

Postby BrevCampagnolo » Sat Jul 11, 2015 6:34 am

Quick -- we MUST do something completely symbolic and utterly ineffectual NOW (and preferably hideously expensive and ruinous to personal liberties), before the real scientists review our data!!!

Is a mini ICE AGE on the way?
Scientists warn the sun will 'go to sleep' in 2030 and could cause temperatures to plummet


* New study claims to have cracked predicting solar cycles
* Says that between 2030 and 2040 solar cycles will cancel each other out
* Could lead to 'Maunder minimum' effect that saw River Thames freeze over


By Mark Prigg For Dailymail.com
Published: 12:40 EST, 10 July 2015 | Updated: 15:42 EST, 10 July 2015

The Earth could be headed for a 'mini ice age' researchers have warned.

A new study claims to have cracked predicting solar cycles - and says that between 2020 and 2030 solar cycles will cancel each other out.

This, they say, will lead to a phenomenon known as the 'Maunder minimum' - which has previously been known as a mini ice age when it hit between 1646 and 1715, even causing London's River Thames to freeze over.

The new model of the Sun's solar cycle is producing unprecedentedly accurate predictions of irregularities within the Sun's 11-year heartbeat.

It draws on dynamo effects in two layers of the Sun, one close to the surface and one deep within its convection zone.

Predictions from the model suggest that solar activity will fall by 60 per cent during the 2030s to conditions last seen during the 'mini ice age' that began in 1645, according to the results presented by Prof Valentina Zharkova at the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno.

The model predicts that the pair of waves become increasingly offset during Cycle 25, which peaks in 2022.

During Cycle 26, which covers the decade from 2030-2040, the two waves will become exactly out of synch and this will cause a significant reduction in solar activity.

'In cycle 26, the two waves exactly mirror each other – peaking at the same time but in opposite hemispheres of the Sun,' said Zharkova.

'Their interaction will be disruptive, or they will nearly cancel each other.

'We predict that this will lead to the properties of a 'Maunder minimum''

'Effectively, when the waves are approximately in phase, they can show strong interaction, or resonance, and we have strong solar activity.

'When they are out of phase, we have solar minimums.

'When there is full phase separation, we have the conditions last seen during the Maunder minimum, 370 years ago.'

It is 172 years since a scientist first spotted that the Sun's activity varies over a cycle lasting around 10 to 12 years.

But every cycle is a little different and none of the models of causes to date have fully explained fluctuations.

Many solar physicists have put the cause of the solar cycle down to a dynamo caused by convecting fluid deep within the Sun.

Now, Zharkova and her colleagues have found that adding a second dynamo, close to the surface, completes the picture with surprising accuracy.

'We found magnetic wave components appearing in pairs, originating in two different layers in the Sun's interior,' she said.

'They both have a frequency of approximately 11 years, although this frequency is slightly different, and they are offset in time.

'Over the cycle, the waves fluctuate between the northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun. Combining both waves together and comparing to real data for the current solar cycle, we found that our predictions showed an accuracy of 97%,' said Zharkova.

Zharkova and her colleagues derived their model using a technique called 'principal component analysis' of the magnetic field observations from the Wilcox Solar Observatory in California.

They examined three solar cycles-worth of magnetic field activity, covering the period from 1976-2008.

In addition, they compared their predictions to average sunspot numbers, another strong marker of solar activity.

All the predictions and observations were closely matched.
-- Campy

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Re: Let It Snow..

Postby bdub » Thu Jul 16, 2015 10:30 am

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morn ... -not-true/

headline reads... "News about an imminent ‘mini ice age’ is trending — but it’s not true".

"It’s also worth mentioning that Zharkova’s findings have not yet been published in a peer-reviewed journal, so her conclusions haven’t been vetted and refined."

"Even if the upcoming decline in solar activity turns out to be as Zharkova’s suggests, scientists who study the sun say we can’t be sure how it will affect Earth’s climate.

“We have some interesting hints that solar activity is associated with climate, but we don’t understand the association,” Dean Pesnell, a NASA scientist who worked on one of the 2011 studies about the grand minimum, told National Geographic at the time.

Those studies that have found a correlation between solar activity and global temperatures predict that the drop in temperatures associated with a grand minimum will be much smaller than the warming that’s predicted to occur due to greenhouse gas emissions: A 2010 study in the journal Geophysical Letters predicted it could cause a global temperature decrease of about 0.3 degrees Celsius by 2100 — not nearly enough to offset the 1 to 5 degree increase anticipated from human-caused global warming."

-------------------------------------------------------------------
- The truth is that the study says nothing at all about Earth's climate. The whole "mini ice age" thing was made up by tabloids and bloggers.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

climate change denier- "And you're ignoring the fact that the last time the Sun was as quiet, it was the Little Ice Age."

answer - "Nobody ignored it. The reality is that conditions now are quite different than they were then: There's 40% more CO2 in the atmosphere, and there's less volcanic activity. Any attempt to invoke the LIA falls flat on its face if you don't take these into account.
But your statement that the sun "will" reach Maunder Minimum-like conditions in 15 years is fascinating. You understand that this is a statistical prediction with no physics behind it, right? And that it's based on a dreaded computer model?
And yet you're completely convinced that it's 100% accurate, guaranteed to happen exactly as predicted, even though we know a whole lot more about our own climate that about what's going on inside the sun. I find that quite interesting."

------------------------------------------------------------------------
but continue with your illogical blather.
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Re: Let It Snow..

Postby rascard2007 » Thu Jul 16, 2015 12:42 pm

bdub wrote:-------------------------------------------------------------------
- The truth is...


OUTHERE
------------------------------------------------------------------- :lol:
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Re: Let It Snow..

Postby Karlsweldt » Thu Jul 16, 2015 3:41 pm

And just today NOAA released a report that 2014 was "the warmest on record".
"Tropical Pacific Ocean moves towards El Niño–Southern Oscillation conditions."
"Greenhouse gases continued to climb."
"Sea surface temperatures were record high."
"The Arctic continued to warm; sea ice extent remained low."
"Tropical cyclones above average overall."

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories201 ... ecord.html
Wonder if someone backed into the hot barbeque again? :wink:
F@H.. to solve mankind's maladies.. in our lifetimes!
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Re: Let It Snow..

Postby Roach412 » Fri Jul 17, 2015 7:29 am

bdub wrote:http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/07/14/news-about-an-imminent-mini-ice-age-is-trending-but-its-not-true/

headline reads... "News about an imminent ‘mini ice age’ is trending — but it’s not true".

but continue with your illogical blather.


so, are you calling yourself a sunspot impact skeptic, or denier? sunspots have historically been shown to have more than a casual relationship to weather/climate on the planet, and records have actually been kept longer and more accurately than temperature(as well as greenhouse gases).

similar sunspot predictions have existed for decades, and have always pointed to a dip in global temperatures in this next few cycles - the study being released was the first to claim predictive capabilities via modeling with high confidence in accuracy, and historical correlation.

the author of that article writes in such an arrogant and flippant way - it's just poor writing journalistically. a hit piece if you will.

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Re: Let It Snow..

Postby BrevCampagnolo » Sat Jul 18, 2015 6:20 am

Satellites: Earth Is Nearly In Its 21st Year Without Global Warming
Michael Bastasch
4:32 PM 07/17/2015

After September of this year, the Earth will be entering its 21st year without statistically significant warming trend, according to satellite-derived temperature data.

Since September 1994, University of Alabama in Huntsville’s satellite temperature data has shown no statistically significant global warming trend. For over 20 years there’s been no warming trend apparent in the satellite records and will soon be entering into year 21 with no warming trend apparent in satellite data — which examines the lowest few miles of the Earth’s atmosphere.

Satellite data from the Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) group also shows a prolonged “hiatus” in global warming. After November of this year, RSS data will be in its 21st year without warming. Ironically, the so-called “hiatus” in warming started when then vice President Al Gore and environmental groups touted RSS satellite data as evidence a slight warming trend since 1979.

Image

For years, climate scientists have been debating the “hiatus” in global warming, pushing dozens of explanations for why global temperatures had not risen significantly in the last decade or so in the surface record and for the last two decades in the satellite record. but the debate was cut short in June when the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration published a study claiming the “hiatus” never existed.

“Newly corrected and updated global surface temperature data from NOAA’s [National Centers for Environmental Information] do not support the notion of a global warming ‘hiatus,’” wrote NOAA scientists in their study.

The study was highly criticized for inflating the temperature record since the late 1990s to show vastly more global warming than was shown in older data. The warming “hiatus” was eliminated and the warming trend over the period was more than doubled.

“There’s been so much criticism of NOAA’s alteration of the sea surface temperature that we are really just going to have to use the University of East Anglia data,” Pat Michaels, a climate scientist with the libertarian Cato Institute, told The Daily Caller News Foundation.

“I don’t think that’s going to stand the test of time,” Michaels said of NOAA’s recent adjustments.

But what Michaels and others say is more problematic is the growing divergence between NOAA’s new temperature data versus satellite data and records from the UK Met Office. NOAA’s data shows significantly more warming than Met Office or satellite records.

“It’s a major problem because outside of the north polar region, the upper troposphere is supposed to warm faster than the surface,” Michaels said.

“Pretty much every projection made by our climate models for sensible weather is simply not at all trustworthy,” Michaels said.
-- Campy

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